The USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN 72) conducts US blockade operations related to the Strait of Hormuz on April 16, 2026, in the Arabian Sea. | US Navy via Getty Images Are the US and Iran on the verge of a full peace agreement — or a return to all-out war? On the one hand, President Donald Trump has told multiple reporters in recent days that Iran has effectively agreed to all US conditions and that talks are going well, with Vice President JD Vance set to land in Pakistan for more this week. On the other hand, after briefly declaring it reopened last week, Iran once again declared the Strait of Hormuz closed, firing on ships transiting the waterway over the weekend, and the US continues to maintain a partial blockade on Iranian ports, seizing an Iranian vessel on Sunday. It’s unclear if Iranian negotiators will even be there to meet Vance in Islamabad. There may also be a third option: The current status quo — definitely not peace, but not quite a return to war either — could simply continue for the time being. At the moment, that’s an outcome that both the US and Iran would probably prefer…
The war in Iran isn’t ending — it’s becoming something new
